Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 2020 | 1336 | 20533 | 45 | 6 | 395 | 498 |
| September 17 2020 | 1398 | 20641 | 45 | 6 | 421 | 538 |
| September 18 2020 | 1476 | 20972 | 45 | 6 | 476 | 594 |
| September 19 2020 | 1527 | 21008 | 47 | 6 | 490 | 622 |
| September 20 2020 | 1586 | 21014 | 47 | 6 | 526 | 645 |
| September 21 2020 | 1617 | 21015 | 47 | 6 | 519 | 640 |
| September 22 2020 | 1650 | 21086 | 49 | 6 | 479 | 650 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9% | 9 | 0.08% | 10 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 12.4 | 22.3% | 107 | 0.79% | 142 | 1.04% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 26.4 | 53.4% | 256 | 1.22% | 370 | 1.77% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 4.4 | 7.7% | 37 | 0.27% | 41 | 0.3% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 2.9 | 5% | 24 | 0.23% | 28 | 0.27% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.0 | 4% | 19 | 0.15% | 24 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.0 | 4% | 19 | 0.17% | 26 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 2 | 0.9 | 1.7% | 8 | 0.08% | 9 | 0.09% |
| All ages | 33 | 52.0 | 100% | 479 | 0.46% | 650 | 0.62% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 2020 | 434 | 13161 | 17 | 0 | 56 | 80 |
| September 17 2020 | 447 | 13295 | 18 | 0 | 65 | 83 |
| September 18 2020 | 456 | 13383 | 18 | 0 | 71 | 85 |
| September 19 2020 | 466 | 13490 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 90 |
| September 20 2020 | 476 | 13728 | 18 | 0 | 81 | 98 |
| September 21 2020 | 480 | 13887 | 18 | 0 | 77 | 98 |
| September 22 2020 | 482 | 13929 | 18 | 0 | 73 | 97 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 2020 | 403 | 8206 | 18 | 4 | 15 | 28 |
| September 17 2020 | 405 | 8249 | 20 | 4 | 13 | 24 |
| September 18 2020 | 407 | 8297 | 20 | 4 | 14 | 25 |
| September 19 2020 | 411 | 8357 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 26 |
| September 20 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 32 |
| September 21 2020 | 420 | 8356 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 28 |
| September 22 2020 | 422 | 8495 | 20 | 4 | 27 | 29 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 2020 | 2011 | 23463 | 41 | 2 | 685 | 803 |
| September 17 2020 | 2121 | 23609 | 41 | 2 | 784 | 882 |
| September 18 2020 | 2375 | 23620 | 41 | 2 | 1024 | 1089 |
| September 19 2020 | 2475 | 23739 | 41 | 2 | 1105 | 1163 |
| September 20 2020 | 2568 | 23777 | 41 | 2 | 1123 | 1242 |
| September 21 2020 | 2622 | 23848 | 41 | 2 | 1099 | 1285 |
| September 22 2020 | 2698 | 24155 | 43 | 2 | 1073 | 1347 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 10-19 | 34 | 41.7 | 36.7% | 394 | 2.38% | 491 | 2.97% |
| 20-29 | 29 | 57.3 | 49.2% | 528 | 2.48% | 663 | 3.12% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 4.0 | 3.4% | 36 | 0.26% | 42 | 0.31% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.4 | 3.3% | 35 | 0.26% | 46 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.7 | 2.1% | 22 | 0.16% | 34 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.3 | 2.1% | 22 | 0.16% | 28 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 2 | 4.0 | 3.3% | 35 | 0.27% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 76 | 115.6 | 100% | 1073 | 0.91% | 1347 | 1.14% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 2020 | 7984 | 176565 | 347 | 41 | 1866 | 2420 |
| September 17 2020 | 8242 | 179874 | 349 | 41 | 2034 | 2603 |
| September 18 2020 | 8455 | 182213 | 350 | 41 | 2028 | 2656 |
| September 19 2020 | 8635 | 184706 | 350 | 41 | 2146 | 2674 |
| September 20 2020 | 8815 | 186173 | 352 | 41 | 1844 | 2697 |
| September 21 2020 | 8895 | 187412 | 352 | 41 | 1641 | 2687 |
| September 22 2020 | 8947 | 190377 | 353 | 41 | 1558 | 2520 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.6 | 2% | 31 | 0.05% | 38 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 13 | 54.1 | 42.2% | 657 | 0.92% | 1237 | 1.74% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 53.0 | 33.6% | 523 | 0.5% | 812 | 0.78% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 12.1 | 6.9% | 108 | 0.14% | 142 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 12.4 | 6.7% | 104 | 0.16% | 125 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 8.4 | 5.1% | 79 | 0.12% | 89 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.9 | 2.1% | 33 | 0.06% | 44 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.6 | 1.5% | 23 | 0.05% | 33 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 52 | 150.1 | 100% | 1558 | 0.28% | 2520 | 0.46% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 16 2020 | 92712 | 1295313 | 6454 | 1228 | 11519 | 15583 |
| September 17 2020 | 94746 | 1304724 | 6522 | 1231 | 12986 | 16890 |
| September 18 2020 | 97279 | 1315258 | 6569 | 1238 | 14802 | 17925 |
| September 19 2020 | 99562 | 1325447 | 6619 | 1241 | 16228 | 19262 |
| September 20 2020 | 101227 | 1332102 | 6653 | 1242 | 16346 | 20034 |
| September 21 2020 | 102498 | 1337627 | 6692 | 1244 | 16248 | 20738 |
| September 22 2020 | 104170 | 1348492 | 6765 | 1251 | 16567 | 21693 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 54 | 50.4 | 2.6% | 426 | 0.07% | 551 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 262 | 353.1 | 20% | 3318 | 0.44% | 4574 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 404 | 509.3 | 28.5% | 4724 | 0.62% | 6272 | 0.83% |
| 30-39 | 232 | 227.0 | 11.9% | 1969 | 0.26% | 2491 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 185 | 201.3 | 10.6% | 1759 | 0.25% | 2228 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 223 | 224.1 | 11.8% | 1950 | 0.24% | 2536 | 0.31% |
| 60-69 | 153 | 148.0 | 7.9% | 1301 | 0.17% | 1642 | 0.22% |
| 70+ | 159 | 124.7 | 6.8% | 1120 | 0.17% | 1399 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 1672 | 1838.0 | 100% | 16567 | 0.28% | 21693 | 0.37% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62.1 | 104.4 | 176.8 | 52 | 30.9 | 29.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 6.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4 | 3 | 1.7 | 5.6% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113.9 | 296.6 | 311.5 | 115.6 | 33.9 | 34.3% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.1 | 174.1 | 78.2 | 150.1 | 207.9 | 6.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37.3 | 60.4 | 82.9 | 1838 | 985.1 | 16.7% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1374"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges