Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day

  • (blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 16 2020 1336 20533 45 6 395 498
September 17 2020 1398 20641 45 6 421 538
September 18 2020 1476 20972 45 6 476 594
September 19 2020 1527 21008 47 6 490 622
September 20 2020 1586 21014 47 6 526 645
September 21 2020 1617 21015 47 6 519 640
September 22 2020 1650 21086 49 6 479 650
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 1.0 1.9% 9 0.08% 10 0.09%
10-19 4 12.4 22.3% 107 0.79% 142 1.04%
20-29 18 26.4 53.4% 256 1.22% 370 1.77%
30-39 6 4.4 7.7% 37 0.27% 41 0.3%
40-49 0 2.9 5% 24 0.23% 28 0.27%
50-59 2 2.0 4% 19 0.15% 24 0.19%
60-69 1 2.0 4% 19 0.17% 26 0.23%
70+ 2 0.9 1.7% 8 0.08% 9 0.09%
All ages 33 52.0 100% 479 0.46% 650 0.62%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 16 2020 434 13161 17 0 56 80
September 17 2020 447 13295 18 0 65 83
September 18 2020 456 13383 18 0 71 85
September 19 2020 466 13490 18 0 77 90
September 20 2020 476 13728 18 0 81 98
September 21 2020 480 13887 18 0 77 98
September 22 2020 482 13929 18 0 73 97

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 16 2020 403 8206 18 4 15 28
September 17 2020 405 8249 20 4 13 24
September 18 2020 407 8297 20 4 14 25
September 19 2020 411 8357 20 4 18 26
September 20 2020 420 8356 20 4 26 32
September 21 2020 420 8356 20 4 26 28
September 22 2020 422 8495 20 4 27 29

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 16 2020 2011 23463 41 2 685 803
September 17 2020 2121 23609 41 2 784 882
September 18 2020 2375 23620 41 2 1024 1089
September 19 2020 2475 23739 41 2 1105 1163
September 20 2020 2568 23777 41 2 1123 1242
September 21 2020 2622 23848 41 2 1099 1285
September 22 2020 2698 24155 43 2 1073 1347
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 0.1% 1 0.01% 4 0.03%
10-19 34 41.7 36.7% 394 2.38% 491 2.97%
20-29 29 57.3 49.2% 528 2.48% 663 3.12%
30-39 6 4.0 3.4% 36 0.26% 42 0.31%
40-49 2 3.4 3.3% 35 0.26% 46 0.34%
50-59 2 2.7 2.1% 22 0.16% 34 0.24%
60-69 1 2.3 2.1% 22 0.16% 28 0.2%
70+ 2 4.0 3.3% 35 0.27% 39 0.3%
All ages 76 115.6 100% 1073 0.91% 1347 1.14%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 16 2020 7984 176565 347 41 1866 2420
September 17 2020 8242 179874 349 41 2034 2603
September 18 2020 8455 182213 350 41 2028 2656
September 19 2020 8635 184706 350 41 2146 2674
September 20 2020 8815 186173 352 41 1844 2697
September 21 2020 8895 187412 352 41 1641 2687
September 22 2020 8947 190377 353 41 1558 2520
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.6 2% 31 0.05% 38 0.06%
10-19 13 54.1 42.2% 657 0.92% 1237 1.74%
20-29 16 53.0 33.6% 523 0.5% 812 0.78%
30-39 3 12.1 6.9% 108 0.14% 142 0.19%
40-49 7 12.4 6.7% 104 0.16% 125 0.19%
50-59 8 8.4 5.1% 79 0.12% 89 0.14%
60-69 0 3.9 2.1% 33 0.06% 44 0.08%
70+ 2 2.6 1.5% 23 0.05% 33 0.07%
All ages 52 150.1 100% 1558 0.28% 2520 0.46%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
September 16 2020 92712 1295313 6454 1228 11519 15583
September 17 2020 94746 1304724 6522 1231 12986 16890
September 18 2020 97279 1315258 6569 1238 14802 17925
September 19 2020 99562 1325447 6619 1241 16228 19262
September 20 2020 101227 1332102 6653 1242 16346 20034
September 21 2020 102498 1337627 6692 1244 16248 20738
September 22 2020 104170 1348492 6765 1251 16567 21693
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 54 50.4 2.6% 426 0.07% 551 0.09%
10-19 262 353.1 20% 3318 0.44% 4574 0.6%
20-29 404 509.3 28.5% 4724 0.62% 6272 0.83%
30-39 232 227.0 11.9% 1969 0.26% 2491 0.33%
40-49 185 201.3 10.6% 1759 0.25% 2228 0.32%
50-59 223 224.1 11.8% 1950 0.24% 2536 0.31%
60-69 153 148.0 7.9% 1301 0.17% 1642 0.22%
70+ 159 124.7 6.8% 1120 0.17% 1399 0.22%
All ages 1672 1838.0 100% 16567 0.28% 21693 0.37%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
62.1 104.4 176.8 52 30.9 29.9%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
15 8.4 4.6 6.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
6.4 3 1.7 5.6%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
113.9 296.6 311.5 115.6 33.9 34.3%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
46.1 174.1 78.2 150.1 207.9 6.6%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
37.3 60.4 82.9 1838 985.1 16.7%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

Column {data-width=600}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column {data-width=200}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

Column

Reliable Updated Visuals

Column

Modeling

Column {data-width=600}

Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 22.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.36 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-10-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1374"

Column {data-width=600}

Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red